9 Golden Years Of Duke Basketball To Come?

Duke under Mike Krzyzewski has been one of the most stable programs over a 30 year run NCAA Basketball has ever seen. Though there have been some lows, they were always followed by highs immediately after. My friend Kedsy crunched the numbers and found an extremely exciting pattern for Duke fans to look forward to over the next 9 years or so. While last year's team exceeded nearly everyone's expectations except the most optimistic of Duke fans and those within the locker room, what's to come may just keep Duke on top of the college basketball world where it belongs:

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The summer of 2009 was tough on Duke fans. The powderpuff blue team from down the road had won the national championship, and Duke had failed to advance past the Sweet 16 for the fifth straight year. A whole lot of journalists and more than a few of the Blue Devil faithful were yammering on about Duke's five year downward spiral pattern after twenty years of high-flying success.

Of course, you could only see a downward spiral if you believe a team's last game defines its season. Because Duke had outstanding seasons in every season from 2005 (really 2004-05, but for this post I'll use the shorthand) to 2009, with the exception of one down year in 2007. Yet, the ignominious endings, especially in 2008 and 2009, left an impression with even the most optimistic fan that those fine regular seasons had been a bit of a mirage.

But was this a new, negative pattern after a twenty year party? I was sitting at my computer in the summer of 2009 and something was off. It didn't seem new; I remember feeling much the same way in the mid-1990s, and also in the mid-1980s, before the 1986 team propelled Duke's historic run. I decided to look more closely at the entirety of K's career at Duke instead of just the previous five years.

A huge part of the perception issue was 2006, but as I thought about it I realized that was mostly due to a single piece of bad luck. LSU won their game before Duke by one point against a #12 seed on a last second desperation three-point heave. If that shot clanked off the rim, Duke would have played #12 seed Texas A&M in a game Duke almost certainly wins, and then Duke's next game would have been against Texas, who Duke matched up well with and had blown out by 31 earlier in the year. So if not for a halfcourt prayer, Duke probably makes the Final Four in 2006.

Looking at it that way, with 2006 as an "up" year, the alleged downward spiral was only three years, and seemed hauntingly familiar, centered around the one down year of 2007.

Coach K's first real recruiting class came to campus for the 1983 season. Including that season (but not his first two years with Bill Foster's recruits), under Coach K Duke has only three times experienced what an objective observer would classify as "down years." Those were 1983, 1995, and 2007. Focusing the analysis on those three years, a larger pattern emerges over the course of K's entire Duke career, and the recent years fit right in:

1983 -- DOWN year (11-17)
1984 -- Rebuilding year; #14 in final AP poll but probably overrated; lost first NCAA game.
1985 -- Frustrating year; solid #10 in final AP poll. Lost 2nd game in NCAAT.

and then nine golden years:
1986 -- #1 in final AP poll, NCAA final game
1987 -- #17, lost in Sweet 16 to eventual national champion
1988 -- #5, Final Four
1989 -- #9, Final Four
1990 -- #15, final game
1991 -- #6, national champs
1992 -- #1, national champs
1993 -- #10, upset in 2nd round of NCAAT
1994 -- #6, final game

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1995 -- DOWN year (13-18)
1996 -- Rebuilding year; unranked; lost first NCAA game
1997 -- Frustrating year; #8 in Final AP poll; barely beat Murray State before losing to Providence in 2nd round of NCAAT

and then nine golden years:
1998 -- #3 in Final AP poll; Elite Eight, with only a late game collapse against eventual national champion keeping team from the Final Four
1999 -- #1, final game
2000 -- #1, upset in Sweet 16
2001 -- #1, national champion
2002 -- #1, upset in Sweet 16
2003 -- #7, lost in Sweet 16
2004 -- #6, Final Four
2005 -- #3, upset in Sweet 16
2006 -- #1, see above

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2007 -- Down year; not nearly as awful as the previous down years, but still...
2008 -- Rebuilding year; #9 in Final AP poll; barely beat Belmont before losing to West Virginia in 2nd round
2009 -- Frustrating year; #6 in Final AP poll; lost in Sweet 16

...and then nine golden years? Well obviously the national championship in 2010 was a pretty good start.

In part because of this pattern I was convinced all year that Duke was going to the Final Four this season. Sure it could have been just a clever bit of data-fitting mixed with a healthy dose of wishful thinking, but it also might be that a Coach K team needs a certain amount of time to "recover" from a down year and be able to play with enough confidence to advance in the NCAA Tournament. It could be the frustration of 2008 and 2009 was exactly what history predicted.

With this year's experience and the new players we have coming in next year, here's hoping we truly have started another nine year run.